1. 22. Predicting MLB's Breakout Stars in 2020. He's made a few Top 100 lists, though not in the last two seasons, but he's still only just now 23 years old. This is somewhat more for entertainment than serious analysis, because we don't have access to important Minor League data like exit velocity or launch angle, and we have never seen any of these players play in person. Earning a second-place finish in the AL Cy Young Award race, Maeda led MLB with a 0.75 WHIP and went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 80 strikeouts and 10 walks in 66 2/3 innings. After struggling across '18-19 (.216/.312/.372), Candelario hit .297/.369/.503 this past season, as his hard-hit rate (47.1%) and barrel rate (10.3%) reached career-high levels. That's a lot to put on him, and it's unfair, but it's what we've got. But as a way of surfacing some interesting names knowing that there's a maybe 1% chance they turn into something, it's a fun exercise. From 2010-'18, we found a dozen seasons (from 11 players, one of whom did it twice) that would have qualified. Additionally, he should have protection in the middle of the O's lineup, surrounded by 2020 breakout star Anthony Santander and the returning Trey Mancini.-- Joe Trezza In 2020 spring training version 1.0, top St. Louis Cardinals prospect Dylan Carlson was 10-for-32 with three doubles, a triple and six walks and looked ready to take on MLB pitching. Players know this, coaches know this, and adjustments are made. The first two qualify for most of our requirements, but fall short in some ways. He may only have played in 24 games for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020, but Ke'Bryan Hayes' superb performance—highlighted by a 1.124 OPS and 1.9 rWAR—was a breakout … Hoskins has hit 81 homers in 2 1/2 seasons as one of the game's better power sources. Cowgill carved out some time as a backup outfielder, but his inclusion at all probably was about his home ballpark, as he slugged .639 in Reno in 2011 and .481 on the road. 25. There are external factors here, as all of Triple-A added power in 2019 while using the Major League ball, and his home park in Oklahoma City (Triple-A) was very hitter-friendly. Kenta Maeda, RHP, TwinsAfter bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen for the Dodgers over his first four seasons, Maeda was traded to the Twins last February and emerged as Minnesota’s ace in 2020. Among pitchers who threw at least 20 innings in 2020, only Devin Williams had a higher strikeout rate than Karinchak (48.6%), and just three hurlers -- Williams, Liam Hendriks and Brad Hand -- had a lower FIP (1.52). The right-hander was especially dominant in his final eight starts, allowing one or no earned runs in six of them and recording a 1.65 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and 64 strikeouts over 43 2/3 innings. Zac Gallen, RHP, D-backsGallen has quickly established himself as one of MLB’s most consistent starters since his 2019 debut. 3. While brief, the 2020 season was replete with impressive breakout performances. https://www.gamblingsites.com/blog/mlb-players-ready-break-out-2021-season The 22-year-old righty obliged, recording a 1.95 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 41 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings. While a September swoon caused his OPS to drop more than 220 points, Robert slugged 11 homers, stole nine bases in 11 attempts and won a Gold Glove Award. 8. ... in Anaheim after the 2020 season, when the best player on the planet is set to hit free agency. It's the kind of out-of-nowhere, who-even-is-this-guy contribution you could have never seen coming ... unless you could have. All this, after hitting .153/.265/.203 in 69 scattered plate appearances for a weak Colorado offense in 2017-'18. This is possibly not a perfect comp. The Braves won all but one of Fried’s 11 starts in 2020, as the left-hander allowed no more than three earned runs in any outing. MLB On The Record: Meet baseball's 2021 breakout players, according to their GMs. Whether you follow player breakouts for your fantasy team or just for the fun/challenge of it, predicting breakouts is always a challenge. None other than Urías, who closed out Game 6 of the Fall Classic with 2 1/3 perfect innings to put the finishing touches on a spectacular postseason and give the Dodgers their first title since 1988. As with all ‘20 stats, the real number for him over a full season likely lies somewhere in the middle, but this shows that there’s plenty of power for the young slugger still to unleash. With MLB’s second-best hard-hit rate (57.8%) and 10th-highest sweet-spot rate (42.2%), d’Arnaud batted .321/.386/.533 with nine homers and 34 RBIs in 44 games and won a Silver Slugger Award. So which young player will build on a strong finish to 2019 and turn in a breakout 2020 season? But if we're trying to find more players like Tauchman, the success rate ought to be pretty low. Devin Williams, RHP, BrewersEstablishing his “Airbender” changeup as one of the most devastating pitches in baseball, Williams was a dominant force out of Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2020. Mallex Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners After hitting.296/.367/.406 with 10 triples and 40 stolen bases in … 8 MLB Players Ready to Breakout in 2020 Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox. In the Minors, however, Grisham hit .300/.407/.603 in 441 plate appearances at two levels, showing an excellent eye by drawing 67 walks against only 72 strikeouts. When looking at batters that hit the ball over 110 mph, Guerrero ranks 14th in baseball with 29 such batted balls. Kyle Tucker, OF, AstrosTucker was one of two Minor Leaguers to produce a 30-30 season in 2019 (Robert was the other), and he brought his power-speed blend to the Astros’ everyday lineup this past season. • Where to find MLB Network on your TV Revisit Devin Williams' mound mastery, Randy Arozarena's postseason I get excited just talking about Willie Calhoun because the writing is on the wall for his 2020 breakout. Darnell's career was sidetracked before it got started by multiple shoulder surgeries. Here’s a rundown of the 25 players who made the list. Breakout:Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox -- The 26-year-old lefty put it all together last year, winning 19 games with a 10-2 mark and 2.95 ERA in the second half. The right-hander struck out 53 of the 100 batters he faced and finished with a 0.33 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP in 27 innings, winning the National League Rookie of the Year Award for his efforts. Connor Joe, OF/UTIL, Dodgers (turns 28 next August). Rangers -- Joey Gallo, OF: Last year was supposed to be his breakout season, and it would have been had injuries not bitten him. Way back in February, more than a month before Tauchman was traded, FanGraphs's Alex Chamberlain ran an article titled "This is the Definitive Mike Tauchman Hype Post," using a formula based on Minor League numbers to identify Tauchman as a breakout candidate. Kepler had a breakout age-26 season in 2019, with 36 homers, and Vogelbach's own age-26 season yielded 30 homers and 92 walks. Breakout: Will Smith, Dodgers-- Already a top-tier fantasy catcher with just 54 games under his belt, Smith hit 15 homers with 42 RBI as a rookie. When looking at batters that hit the ball over 110 mph, Guerrero ranks 14th in baseball with 29 such batted balls. St. Louis reliever Giovanny Gallegos consistently showed elite Minor League strikeout rates in 2016-'18 despite what seemed like a lack of eye-popping stuff and limited appearances on top prospect lists ... and then he became one of the better relievers in the Majors in 2019, somewhat unexpectedly. Statistics 2020 Fantasy Baseball Breakouts: 10 to make the leap from starter to star to superstar Keston Hiura, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Tucker are three players Chris Towers is … Ranking among the big league leaders in hard-hit rate (53.1%) and barrel rate (18.0%), Hernández produced 16 homers with a .919 OPS (146 OPS+) in 50 games, helping the upstart Blue Jays reach the postseason for the first time since 2016. Who are our four names from 2019 to keep an eye out for next season? Blue Jays and White Sox fans, take notice. Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary. 21. They are: • Mike Tauchman, 2018• Rhys Hoskins, 2017• Daniel Vogelbach, 2016• Max Kepler, 2015• Mookie Betts, 2014• Allan Dykstra, 2014 and 2013• Paul Goldschmidt, 2011• Collin Cowgill, 2011• David Cooper, 2011• James Darnell, 2011• Jermaine Mitchell, 2011. However, early-season struggles at the MLB level in 2019 revealed a player that needed to adjust to big-league pitching, as evidenced by his 28.7 K% and .241 batting average in the first half. Julio Urías, LHP, DodgersThe man standing tall on the mound at the end of the World Series? 10 MLB Players Primed for 2020 Breakouts After Finishing 2019 Strong. Hoskins has hit 81 homers in 2 1/2 seasons as one of the game's better power sources. All told, Fried went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 56 innings for the NL East champions. That includes picking a breakout player for every team. 19. Raise that exit velocity to 115, and he leads all of baseball with eight. OK, so that's a lot. 4. After all, those kind of breakouts just don't happen that often. Cooper underwent what was referred to as "rare spinal surgery." ... in Anaheim after the 2020 season, when the best player on the planet is set to hit free agency. Braves -- Mike Soroka, RHP: He made his big splash last year, and now the restrictions are off. The 23-year-old had 27 extra-base hits -- including nine homers and an MLB-leading six triples -- to go along with eight steals and a 123 OPS+ over 58 games. That's not how it played out, of course; despite playing only half a season due to time in the Minors and a season-ending calf strain in early September, Tauchman hit .277/.361/.504 with 13 homers and some of the most elite outfield defense in the game. With some players, stardom is obvious right from the beginning. From Randy Arozarena's amazing Postseason run to Devin Williams being unhittable, 2020 saw its share of breakout MLB players bursting on the scene! So for Anderson to win one batting title (in 2019) and vie for another (in 2020) is sort of stunning. 0 of 10. Of the 10 players aside from Tauchman, half of them have found above-average big league success. From rookies bursting onto the scene to former top prospects reaching their potential to long-established veterans finding new levels of success, every season has its share of breakout stars. A 13th-round pick of Tampa Bay in 2016 -- that would be 12 rounds after his more highly touted brother Josh was the 13th overall pick by the same Rays -- Lowe had a breakout 2018 at three levels, hitting .330/.416/.568 with 27 homers, vaulting him onto the prospect radar. There's a flaw there, of course, which is the time-honored chestnut: You can't scout the stat line. 2. MLB breakout candidates: One player per team who's ready to step up in 2020 season Hope springs eternal, and there's some reason to believe in all 30 of these players By R.J. Anderson After leading Houston in innings (70 2/3) and finishing with a 3.57 ERA and a 76-to-16 K/BB ratio in the regular season, the left-hander added a 1.88 ERA over 24 innings in the playoffs. Whether you follow player breakouts for your fantasy team or just for the fun/challenge of it, predicting breakouts is always a challenge. After recording a 3.27 ERA across 55 frames in the regular season, Urías went 4-0 with one save, a 1.17 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23 innings during the playoffs. Betts and Goldschmidt are two of the bigger stars in the game. Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B, TigersCandelario’s success was arguably the biggest positive of the 2020 season for the rebuilding Tigers. Expect him to push 30 home runs in 2020 … Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is only 20 years old. But through it all, Joe has kept on hitting, posting a career Minor League OBP of .377. 23. He kept it up last season -- his age-32 campaign -- slashing .326/.365/.463 (128 OPS+) for the Giants. 16. Why he's not a perfect fit: He's almost exclusively a first baseman, with handful of pro games at third base, and he has no speed to speak of. He did slug better at home (.650) than on the road (.543), but both were good, and either way, this isn't a park thing. Despite the condensed schedule, Voit set a career high with 22 homers in 2020, leading the Majors and keeping the Yankees’ offense on track during a year in which Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela missed a combined 96 games and Gary Sánchez and Gleyber Torres struggled. 14. A huge part of the Mariners’ future. Kepler had a breakout age-26 season in 2019, with 36 homers, and Vogelbach's own age-26 season yielded 30 homers and 92 walks. Let's split them in half. MLB Network is looking back on the best of the bunch right now with its countdown of the Top 25 breakout players. Will any of these names pan out into stars? Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox. The 25-year-old tied for fifth among qualifiers with a 169 OPS+ -- one point better than Angels superstar Mike Trout and three points higher than AL MVP Award winner José Abreu. Randy Arozarena, OF, RaysArozarena didn’t make his 2020 debut until Aug. 30, but he takes the No. The best thing about the start of a new baseball season is that every team has hope. So we thought to ourselves, what if we reverse-engineer the method that popped Tauchman, make some slight tweaks, and see if we can dsicern who might be 2020's possible breakouts? James Karinchak, RHP, IndiansWith a distinct over-the-top delivery that makes his curveball especially tough to hit, Karinchak baffled MLB hitters in his rookie season. Travis d'Arnaud, C, BravesAfter playing for three teams (Mets, Dodgers, Rays) in 2019, d’Arnaud signed a two-year deal with the Braves last offseason and had the best season of his career at age 31. Right away, there's some interesting names on that list. He capitalized on the opportunity. But dig his career path ever since: Traded to the Braves in August 2017 for Sean Rodriguez, traded two weeks later to the Dodgers for international slot money, selected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Reds headed into 2019, traded to the Giants on March 21, part of the unlikeliest Opening Day outfield you can ever remember, then returned to the Dodgers after all of 16 big league plate appearances. 7. Kyle Lewis, OF, MarinersBuilding on a strong showing after making his MLB debut late in 2019 (six homers, .885 OPS), Lewis continued to display plus power last season while proving to be a capable defender in center field. He wasn't even the only Yankee who had an out-of-nowhere strong year, thanks to Gio Urshela, Cameron Maybin and Mike Ford. Fine, Joe was a first-round pick of the Pirates back in 2014, so you might think he shouldn't qualify for "out of nowhere" status. Published March 9, 2020 10 MLB players set to break out in a big way this year ... 26-man rosters opening the door for new faces to deliver breakout season. one of the most devastating pitches in baseball, Burnes tweaked his repertoire last season, only Devin Williams had a higher strikeout rate. We had a decent batting average in 2020 , hitting on 13 or 14 of our 30 picks, depending on the judge. These are the two. Especially after you just had a season as we had in 2020, all of the “breakouts” are basically just 60-game hot streaks. That did all come at some high-offense parks, but he did slug much better on the road (.676) than he did at home (.538); either way, the most impressive part was his 70/57 K/BB. Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves. While Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Kyle Schwarber each posted an OPS+ below 90, Happ led the club with a 131 mark, hitting .258/.361/.505 with 12 homers in 57 games. 15. Framber Valdez, LHP, AstrosWith Gerrit Cole departing as a free agent and Justin Verlander undergoing Tommy John surgery, Valdez was thrust into a key role in 2020. Corbin Burnes, RHP, BrewersOn the heels of an 8.82 ERA over 49 innings in 2019, Burnes tweaked his repertoire last season and became one of MLB’s most effective hurlers, earning a sixth-place finish in the NL Cy Young Award voting. Especially after you just had a season as we had in 2020, all of the “breakouts” are basically just 60-game hot streaks. Every MLB Team's Potential Breakout Star in 2020. Does that count as "out of nowhere"? 24. That wasn't true in Double-A Tulsa, however, which is a neutral park. Mitchell had knee surgery right after his breakout season and never received 500 plate appearances in a season again. 18. He still doesn’t draw walks, and he has an abnormally high batting average on balls in play over those two seasons (.395, the highest in MLB by 14 points in that span). Probably not. Rojas was a 26th-round Astros pick in 2017, and he was part of the trade that sent Zack Greinke out of Arizona this past summer. The rookie slugger set playoff records for hits (29) and homers (10), and he posted a .377/.442/.831 slash line under the bright lights of October, helping Tampa Bay reach the World Series. Dinelson Lamet, RHP, PadresAfter missing all of 2018 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Lamet showed promise over 14 starts in ’19 (4.07 ERA, 12.9 K/9). If we'd dropped our requirements from "walk rate 80% of strikeout rate" to "walk rate 75% of strikeout rate," he'd have qualified in 2018. Plus, if we're really trying to find another Tauchman, we should just be looking for speedy outfielders -- he has seven seasons of double-digit steals -- which would knock out 1B/DH types like Hoskins, Vogelbach, Goldschmidt, Cooper and Dykstra. 2021 MLB Predictions: Shohei Ohtani breakout will lift Angels ... just as brutal a 2020 as did his teammate Ohtani, although he at least limited his damage to hitting and fielding. Of the 10 players aside from Tauchman, half of them have found above-average big league success. ... That sounds like one of the game’s elite players to me. Grisham got some scattered playing time in August, then more after Christian Yelich was injured in early September. The right-hander not only posted the best K/BB ratio of his career (4.2) but also yielded just five homers in 65 2/3 innings (0.7 HR/9), contributing to a 3.29 ERA. Wait, a former top prospect who hit 30 homers in his rookie season is a ‘breakout candidate’? It's sound advice, and a fair warning. 17. 5. In … Alec Bohm, 3B, PhilliesThe third overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, Bohm never appeared above Double-A before getting called up to the Majors in ’20, but he looked MLB-ready upon his arrival in mid-August. The 25-year-old won the American League Rookie of the Year Award after finishing first among rookies in homers (11), runs (37) and FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (1.7). Why he's not a perfect fit: Sure, he's an outfielder with speed, swiping 38 bases in 2017. After playing just nine games in 2016 and making zero MLB appearances over ’17-18, Solano re-emerged to hit .330 over 81 games in ’19. 6. In 2020, Guerrero had a 50.8% hard-hit rate, which ranked 12th among players with at least 100 batted balls and was up about 12 percentage points from '19. Either way, we should never expect a 100% success rate or close to it, given the relatively surface-level nature of what we're doing. 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